← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University3.22+2.68vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy2.40+4.01vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.23+3.67vs Predicted
-
4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+3.00vs Predicted
-
5Georgetown University2.06+2.08vs Predicted
-
6Georgetown University2.54-0.19vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy2.22-0.29vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University1.01+2.74vs Predicted
-
9Georgetown University2.50-3.04vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University1.52-0.92vs Predicted
-
11Georgetown University0.47+1.76vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Naval Academy1.17-1.60vs Predicted
-
13St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08-2.23vs Predicted
-
14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-2.60vs Predicted
-
15Washington College0.09-1.32vs Predicted
-
16Washington College0.21-2.52vs Predicted
-
17Christopher Newport University0.79-5.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.68Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
-
6.01U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
-
6.67St. Mary's College of Maryland2.230.1%1st Place
-
7.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
-
7.08Georgetown University2.060.1%1st Place
-
5.81Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
-
6.71U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
-
10.74Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
-
5.96Georgetown University2.500.1%1st Place
-
9.08Old Dominion University1.520.0%1st Place
-
12.76Georgetown University0.470.0%1st Place
-
10.4U. S. Naval Academy1.170.0%1st Place
-
10.77St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
-
11.4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
-
13.68Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
-
13.48Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
-
11.76Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 23.2% | 17.4% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Keiran James Golden | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Thomas McCann | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Diego Escobar | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Kelly | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 5.1% |
| Daniel Hughes | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Glenn | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Spencer Kriegstein | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| Robert Ziman | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| Max Kleha | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% |
| Lily Flack | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 7.1% |
| Max Shapiro | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 16.5% | 28.4% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 17.3% | 23.3% |
| David Grace | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.