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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+2.75vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.22+4.71vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.06+4.33vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.23+2.80vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+1.84vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.30vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.50-1.14vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.79+3.51vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.17+1.66vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.54-4.36vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.52-1.67vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-0.61vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.09+0.89vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08-3.06vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.39-5.32vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.21-2.45vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University0.47-4.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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6.71U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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7.33Georgetown University2.060.1%1st Place
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6.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.230.1%1st Place
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6.84St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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6.3U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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5.86Georgetown University2.500.1%1st Place
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11.51Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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10.66U. S. Naval Academy1.170.0%1st Place
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5.64Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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9.33Old Dominion University1.520.0%1st Place
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11.39St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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13.89Washington College0.090.0%1st Place
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10.94St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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9.68Old Dominion University1.390.0%1st Place
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13.55Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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12.81Georgetown University0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 23.8% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Kelly | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Thomas McCann | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Keiran James Golden | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 7.0% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Trenton Shaw | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hughes | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Grace | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 9.0% |
| Robert Ziman | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| Diego Escobar | 10.6% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| John Glenn | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Lily Flack | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 6.5% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 18.9% | 29.4% |
| Max Kleha | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 4.7% |
| Chris Robertson | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 17.4% | 24.2% |
| Spencer Kriegstein | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 18.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.