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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.04+5.98vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+6.08vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.61+5.78vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.07+6.62vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.50+3.91vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.65+2.40vs Predicted
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72.64+1.45vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.69+4.24vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.73+3.18vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.45-0.59vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.43-5.54vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.17-1.32vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.74-1.02vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.35-0.79vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.45-5.88vs Predicted
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16Harvard University2.75-8.03vs Predicted
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17Boston College3.07-10.23vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.79-6.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.98Brown University3.040.1%1st Place
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8.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.78Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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10.62Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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8.91Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.4Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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8.452.640.1%1st Place
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12.24Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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12.18University of Rhode Island1.730.0%1st Place
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9.41Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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5.46Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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10.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.170.0%1st Place
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11.98Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.21University of Vermont1.350.0%1st Place
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9.12Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.97Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.77Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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11.76Northeastern University1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Murphy | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Samuel Merson | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Micky Munns | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Dana Haig | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Connor Macken | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 15.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 11.5% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 13.7% | 14.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kaila Pfrang | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 5.9% |
| Nils Tullberg | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 13.0% |
| Nicholas Salvesen | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 24.1% |
| CJ Mckenna | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Everett Nash | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.