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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.74+2.08vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.91+2.60vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+0.37vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.11-0.80vs Predicted
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6Princeton University2.35-2.22vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.03+1.38vs Predicted
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8Villanova University0.91-1.45vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.09-4.86vs Predicted
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10University of Delaware0.06-1.82vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.31-3.22vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-2.52-1.59vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University-1.60-3.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.08George Washington University2.740.2%1st Place
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4.6Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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4.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.1%1st Place
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4.2University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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3.78Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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8.38SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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6.55Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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4.14University of Pennsylvania2.090.2%1st Place
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8.18University of Delaware0.060.0%1st Place
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8.78University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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11.41University of Pittsburgh-2.520.0%1st Place
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10.53Monmouth University-1.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Ehnot | 23.4% | 22.5% | 18.4% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 10.1% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 12.8% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 15.1% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Majernik | 12.8% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 16.5% | 16.2% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 23.1% | 23.5% | 11.1% | 1.5% |
| Owen Ward | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 17.7% | 17.8% | 14.6% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Gavula | 15.4% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Harrington | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 10.5% | 20.0% | 23.4% | 20.5% | 8.1% | 0.4% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 14.0% | 20.3% | 29.2% | 15.0% | 2.4% |
| Stephen Turocy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 17.4% | 71.2% |
| Abigail Brooks | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 13.7% | 45.9% | 24.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.