Race 4A

john-quinn

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Connor Mraz 17.4% 15.1% 14.8% 17.1% 13.9% 10.0% 7.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Michael Ehnot 24.6% 22.2% 18.7% 12.6% 9.8% 7.2% 3.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lucas Sawin 13.0% 11.6% 13.4% 13.2% 13.2% 15.6% 12.3% 6.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Amanda Majernik 12.3% 15.6% 14.4% 13.0% 15.0% 12.2% 9.5% 6.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Samuel Gavula 12.6% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 12.1% 14.0% 9.2% 5.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Rayne Duff 11.1% 11.4% 10.4% 14.5% 15.0% 13.3% 11.1% 9.8% 2.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinn Harrington 2.0% 2.6% 2.2% 3.2% 2.8% 6.1% 11.2% 16.4% 22.3% 21.4% 8.0% 1.8%
Jonathan Gorman 1.5% 1.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.5% 5.0% 9.8% 14.1% 23.5% 23.7% 10.4% 1.2%
Owen Ward 3.7% 3.6% 5.9% 5.5% 10.5% 12.7% 17.2% 20.1% 13.8% 5.8% 1.2% 0.0%
Hannah Mercurio 1.0% 1.4% 2.0% 3.4% 2.9% 2.4% 6.4% 13.6% 21.8% 27.4% 15.1% 2.6%
Stephen Turocy 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 2.9% 5.3% 18.1% 70.3%
Abigail Brooks 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 2.0% 3.1% 7.5% 12.9% 47.1% 24.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.