Race 5A

john-quinn

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Michael Ehnot 25.4% 21.4% 16.6% 14.2% 9.6% 6.8% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Owen Ward 3.2% 4.9% 4.8% 7.6% 9.0% 12.3% 16.8% 18.2% 13.0% 8.1% 2.0% 0.1%
Amanda Majernik 13.2% 13.6% 13.0% 14.5% 16.9% 11.2% 10.7% 4.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinn Harrington 1.3% 1.6% 3.1% 2.5% 4.2% 5.1% 10.1% 17.1% 23.5% 21.4% 8.9% 1.2%
Rayne Duff 11.2% 11.8% 12.6% 13.1% 13.1% 15.0% 11.3% 7.1% 3.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Samuel Gavula 13.0% 13.7% 14.2% 13.2% 14.5% 14.1% 10.1% 4.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Gorman 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 3.8% 2.9% 6.2% 9.0% 16.5% 20.7% 21.4% 11.5% 1.9%
Abigail Brooks 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 2.4% 5.0% 7.5% 13.1% 43.3% 25.4%
Hannah Mercurio 1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 2.1% 1.9% 4.1% 7.8% 13.9% 21.3% 28.3% 15.0% 1.7%
Lucas Sawin 12.9% 13.4% 13.3% 15.0% 13.5% 11.9% 11.4% 5.6% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Connor Mraz 15.7% 16.3% 17.9% 13.5% 13.3% 12.0% 5.9% 4.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen Turocy 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 1.6% 3.1% 4.5% 19.0% 69.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.