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📊 Prediction Accuracy
76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+3.00vs Predicted
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2Princeton University2.35+1.48vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.91+1.34vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.09-0.08vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.30-0.52vs Predicted
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7Villanova University0.91-0.68vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.11-4.18vs Predicted
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9University of Delaware0.06-1.02vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.31-1.22vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University-1.60-0.24vs Predicted
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12University of Pittsburgh-2.52-0.08vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-2.44-1.16vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-5.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.2%1st Place
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3.48Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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4.34Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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3.92University of Pennsylvania2.090.2%1st Place
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5.48George Washington University1.300.1%1st Place
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6.32Villanova University0.910.1%1st Place
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3.82University of Pennsylvania2.110.2%1st Place
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7.98University of Delaware0.060.0%1st Place
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8.78University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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10.76Monmouth University-1.600.0%1st Place
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11.92University of Pittsburgh-2.520.0%1st Place
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11.84Princeton University-2.440.0%1st Place
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8.39SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 15.6% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 19.1% | 20.7% | 16.5% | 14.3% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 12.6% | 11.9% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 16.1% | 15.9% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Fisher | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 14.4% | 16.3% | 12.9% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 15.7% | 16.5% | 11.9% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Majernik | 17.4% | 15.9% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Harrington | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 21.7% | 19.4% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 12.8% | 17.3% | 25.2% | 17.1% | 5.2% | 0.8% |
| Abigail Brooks | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 29.4% | 28.3% | 12.7% |
| Stephen Turocy | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 14.3% | 32.6% | 42.4% |
| Nikhil De | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 15.8% | 28.5% | 43.2% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 16.9% | 22.3% | 20.2% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.