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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.11+2.87vs Predicted
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2Princeton University2.35+1.45vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.09+0.92vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.00vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.91-0.80vs Predicted
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7University of Delaware0.06+1.04vs Predicted
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8Villanova University0.91-1.72vs Predicted
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9University of Pittsburgh-2.52+2.91vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.30-4.43vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.31-2.27vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University-1.60-1.28vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-2.44-1.14vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-5.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.87University of Pennsylvania2.110.2%1st Place
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3.45Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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3.92University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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4.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.2%1st Place
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4.2Webb Institute1.910.2%1st Place
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8.04University of Delaware0.060.0%1st Place
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6.28Villanova University0.910.1%1st Place
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11.91University of Pittsburgh-2.520.0%1st Place
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5.57George Washington University1.300.1%1st Place
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8.73University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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10.72Monmouth University-1.600.0%1st Place
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11.86Princeton University-2.440.0%1st Place
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8.44SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Majernik | 16.6% | 16.1% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 19.8% | 19.7% | 16.5% | 15.6% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 14.7% | 16.6% | 15.4% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 15.2% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Harrington | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 22.2% | 18.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Owen Ward | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 11.8% | 16.6% | 18.0% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Turocy | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 12.2% | 30.6% | 45.2% |
| Jack Fisher | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 18.2% | 24.2% | 15.9% | 5.9% | 0.7% |
| Abigail Brooks | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 32.1% | 26.8% | 10.1% |
| Nikhil De | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 15.2% | 29.6% | 43.4% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 19.4% | 22.8% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.