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📊 Prediction Accuracy
84.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.35+1.87vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+1.34vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.18+0.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+0.26vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute0.72+0.88vs Predicted
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6Princeton University1.08-0.89vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+1.51vs Predicted
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8Villanova University-0.08-0.44vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.35-0.79vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.91-0.73vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University-1.60-0.45vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-1.42-2.65vs Predicted
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14University of Pittsburgh-2.46-2.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.87George Washington University2.350.3%1st Place
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3.34University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
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3.17University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
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4.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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5.88Webb Institute0.720.1%1st Place
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5.11Princeton University1.080.1%1st Place
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8.51SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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7.56Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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8.21Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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9.27University of Virginia-0.910.0%1st Place
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10.55Monmouth University-1.600.0%1st Place
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10.35University of Delaware-1.420.0%1st Place
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11.93University of Pittsburgh-2.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Timms | 26.2% | 22.2% | 19.3% | 14.2% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 19.3% | 19.8% | 17.9% | 16.8% | 12.6% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 22.8% | 20.9% | 16.8% | 15.6% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 11.1% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 17.4% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eric Heilshorn | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Asher Green | 7.6% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 16.8% | 12.7% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 16.6% | 15.1% | 8.2% | 1.9% |
| Jack Murray | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 17.5% | 15.0% | 12.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 16.4% | 16.3% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 1.4% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 17.6% | 17.4% | 13.2% | 6.0% |
| Abigail Brooks | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 18.9% | 26.0% | 17.0% |
| Alexandra Starr | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 18.1% | 24.9% | 14.8% |
| Justin Gugliuzza | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 9.9% | 17.7% | 58.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.