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📊 Prediction Accuracy
84.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.35+1.88vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+1.34vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.27vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.18-0.83vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute0.72+0.87vs Predicted
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6Princeton University1.08-0.90vs Predicted
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7Villanova University-0.08+0.50vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.35-0.85vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-1.39vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University-1.60-0.42vs Predicted
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12University of Delaware-1.42-1.82vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.91-3.57vs Predicted
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14University of Pittsburgh-2.46-2.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.88George Washington University2.350.3%1st Place
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3.34University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
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4.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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3.17University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
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5.87Webb Institute0.720.1%1st Place
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5.1Princeton University1.080.1%1st Place
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7.5Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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8.15Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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8.61SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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10.58Monmouth University-1.600.0%1st Place
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10.18University of Delaware-1.420.0%1st Place
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9.43University of Virginia-0.910.0%1st Place
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11.93University of Pittsburgh-2.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Timms | 26.7% | 20.6% | 20.9% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 19.8% | 19.4% | 17.8% | 16.5% | 12.7% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 10.0% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 15.5% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 21.8% | 20.6% | 19.4% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Heilshorn | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 14.3% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Asher Green | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 15.3% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 16.2% | 16.4% | 15.6% | 11.3% | 5.6% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 16.6% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 3.3% |
| Abigail Brooks | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 16.8% | 27.0% | 19.3% |
| Alexandra Starr | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 16.1% | 19.5% | 20.8% | 13.1% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 16.3% | 19.3% | 14.9% | 5.8% |
| Justin Gugliuzza | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 8.4% | 20.2% | 56.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.