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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.35+1.85vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.18+1.11vs Predicted
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3Princeton University1.08+2.20vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+0.18vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.06-1.69vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+2.44vs Predicted
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7Princeton University-0.35+0.97vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute0.72-2.22vs Predicted
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9Villanova University-0.08-1.48vs Predicted
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10Monmouth University-1.60+0.37vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-2.19+0.27vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.88-2.78vs Predicted
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14University of Pittsburgh-2.46-2.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.85George Washington University2.350.3%1st Place
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3.11University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
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5.2Princeton University1.080.1%1st Place
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4.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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3.31University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
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8.44SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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7.97Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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5.78Webb Institute0.720.1%1st Place
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7.52Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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10.37Monmouth University-1.600.0%1st Place
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11.27University of Delaware-2.190.0%1st Place
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9.22University of Virginia-0.880.0%1st Place
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11.78University of Pittsburgh-2.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Timms | 26.7% | 21.7% | 20.1% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 22.6% | 21.5% | 19.2% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 15.3% | 17.6% | 14.1% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 12.0% | 12.4% | 15.8% | 16.4% | 15.9% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 20.1% | 20.7% | 17.0% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 18.1% | 18.7% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 0.9% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| Eric Heilshorn | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 16.5% | 18.4% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 16.8% | 17.3% | 12.4% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Abigail Brooks | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 20.9% | 22.9% | 14.8% |
| Laura MacMillan | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 15.0% | 29.4% | 30.1% |
| Patrick McBride | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 18.8% | 19.9% | 10.8% | 4.7% |
| Justin Gugliuzza | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 12.9% | 23.0% | 48.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.