← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University3.29+5.26vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University4.50+1.10vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.19vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+4.93vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University2.89+2.62vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+0.47vs Predicted
-
7Columbia University2.87+0.59vs Predicted
-
8Boston University3.56-2.50vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College3.33-2.84vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania2.68-1.61vs Predicted
-
11Roger Williams University2.64-2.61vs Predicted
-
12Northeastern University2.84-3.99vs Predicted
-
13Tufts University2.76-4.77vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University0.21-0.56vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Military Academy-1.49-0.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.26Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
-
3.1Harvard University4.500.3%1st Place
-
7.19U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
8.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
-
7.62Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
-
6.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
-
7.59Columbia University2.870.1%1st Place
-
5.5Boston University3.560.1%1st Place
-
6.16Connecticut College3.330.1%1st Place
-
8.39University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
-
8.39Roger Williams University2.640.0%1st Place
-
8.01Northeastern University2.840.0%1st Place
-
8.23Tufts University2.760.1%1st Place
-
13.44Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
-
14.71U. S. Military Academy-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Billing | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Tedd Himler | 28.6% | 21.4% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 5.4% | 0.2% |
| Vincent Andrews | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Ian Liberty | 6.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Hannon | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Pesch | 10.6% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Whipple | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 0.2% |
| Eric Schwarm | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Conor Lodge | 4.7% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| T. Max Bulger | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 64.9% | 14.8% |
| Patrick Bowers | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 12.1% | 84.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.