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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+6.06vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.50+3.96vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.50+3.04vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College1.55+5.60vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.76+3.62vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.39+0.66vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.07+0.61vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire1.02+3.29vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.97-0.82vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.91-1.95vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.49-4.75vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.36-5.52vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.11-1.64vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy0.25+0.01vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.36-4.72vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy0.47-2.66vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.84-4.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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5.96Harvard University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.04Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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9.6Bowdoin College1.550.0%1st Place
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8.62Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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6.66Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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7.61Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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11.29University of New Hampshire1.020.0%1st Place
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8.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.970.0%1st Place
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8.05University of Rhode Island1.910.1%1st Place
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6.25Bowdoin College2.490.1%1st Place
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6.48Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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11.36University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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14.01Maine Maritime Academy0.250.0%1st Place
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10.28Boston University1.360.0%1st Place
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13.34Maine Maritime Academy0.470.0%1st Place
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12.19Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kickhafer | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jonas Nelle | 10.4% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| James Paul | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Chance | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Nathan Sih | 9.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Connor Sheridan | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Grace Cannon | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 8.8% |
| Michael Pinto | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Henry Lee | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 12.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 8.7% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 8.2% |
| Olivia Mitchell | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 18.0% | 34.8% |
| Nathan Selian | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% |
| Quinn Collins | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 19.2% | 22.6% |
| Stephen Poirier | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 14.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.