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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.07+6.42vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+5.16vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.50+3.02vs Predicted
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4Maine Maritime Academy0.47+9.27vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.76+3.60vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.39+0.61vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.11+4.21vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.50-1.97vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire1.02+2.69vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.36-3.54vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.49-4.81vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.97-4.02vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.84-0.78vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.91-5.60vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy0.25-1.18vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College1.55-6.42vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.36-6.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.42Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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6.02Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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13.27Maine Maritime Academy0.470.0%1st Place
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8.6Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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6.61Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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11.21University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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6.03Harvard University2.500.1%1st Place
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11.69University of New Hampshire1.020.0%1st Place
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6.46Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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6.19Bowdoin College2.490.1%1st Place
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7.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.970.1%1st Place
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12.22Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.840.0%1st Place
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8.4University of Rhode Island1.910.1%1st Place
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13.82Maine Maritime Academy0.250.0%1st Place
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9.58Bowdoin College1.550.0%1st Place
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10.33Boston University1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Sheridan | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| James Paul | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Quinn Collins | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 16.9% | 25.8% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Sih | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 6.5% |
| Jonas Nelle | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Grace Cannon | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 9.5% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 11.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Michael Pinto | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Stephen Poirier | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 13.9% |
| Henry Lee | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Olivia Mitchell | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 18.8% | 32.3% |
| Jonathan Chance | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Nathan Selian | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.