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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+5.70vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.50+0.95vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.76+4.48vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.29+1.97vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.68+2.78vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+0.19vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+1.11vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.56-2.79vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.33-3.05vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.87-2.73vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.84-3.67vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.64-4.13vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.21-0.55vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.49-0.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.7U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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2.95Harvard University4.500.3%1st Place
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7.48Tufts University2.760.0%1st Place
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5.97Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.78University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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6.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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5.21Boston University3.560.1%1st Place
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5.95Connecticut College3.330.1%1st Place
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7.27Columbia University2.870.1%1st Place
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7.33Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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7.87Roger Williams University2.640.0%1st Place
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12.45Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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13.73U. S. Military Academy-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Edegran | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Tedd Himler | 28.6% | 25.5% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| T. Max Bulger | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Emily Billing | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| Ian Liberty | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Pesch | 11.9% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Whipple | 8.4% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Hannon | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Conor Lodge | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Eric Schwarm | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 4.3% | 0.3% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 67.4% | 14.3% |
| Patrick Bowers | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 12.5% | 84.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.