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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.50+4.80vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont1.11+8.77vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.36+3.35vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.07+3.42vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.97+2.58vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+1.13vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.91+0.97vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.76+0.36vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.55+0.46vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.49-4.15vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy0.47+1.95vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire1.02-0.87vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.50-6.98vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.84-2.09vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.39-8.73vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy0.25-2.40vs Predicted
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17Boston University-0.10-2.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.8Harvard University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.77University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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6.35Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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7.42Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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7.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.970.1%1st Place
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7.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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7.97University of Rhode Island1.910.1%1st Place
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8.36Tufts University1.760.1%1st Place
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9.46Bowdoin College1.550.0%1st Place
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5.85Bowdoin College2.490.1%1st Place
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12.95Maine Maritime Academy0.470.0%1st Place
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11.13University of New Hampshire1.020.0%1st Place
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6.02Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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11.91Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.840.0%1st Place
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6.27Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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13.6Maine Maritime Academy0.250.0%1st Place
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14.44Boston University-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Nelle | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 4.9% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 9.1% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Sheridan | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Michael Pinto | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Henry Lee | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Chance | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 10.0% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Quinn Collins | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 17.8% | 18.4% |
| Grace Cannon | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 5.1% |
| James Paul | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Poirier | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 9.2% |
| Nathan Sih | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Olivia Mitchell | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 19.7% | 22.4% |
| Will Brownie | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 37.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.