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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University1.25+9.29vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.54+1.46vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.00+5.03vs Predicted
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4Yale University1.67+5.16vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.62+0.85vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23-1.62vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.81-1.57vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.70-2.36vs Predicted
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9Maine Maritime Academy0.27+4.69vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.77-1.26vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.32-0.56vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-2.62vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.07-5.13vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire0.39-0.61vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy0.26-1.46vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-2.27vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44-7.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.29Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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3.46Harvard University3.540.2%1st Place
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8.03Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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9.16Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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5.85Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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4.38University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
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5.43Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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5.64Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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13.69Maine Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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8.74Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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10.44University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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9.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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7.87Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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13.39University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
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13.54Maine Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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13.73Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 23.0% | 20.2% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 15.5% | 15.0% | 15.5% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 10.6% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Healy | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 20.1% | 22.5% |
| Jack Flores | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 2.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Taylor Eastman | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| James Sullivan | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 16.8% | 20.7% |
| Sean Caulfield | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 16.7% | 23.7% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 18.2% | 23.7% |
| Jack Derry | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.