← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Tufts University2.62+4.88vs Predicted
-
2University of Rhode Island3.23+2.22vs Predicted
-
3Tufts University1.77+5.77vs Predicted
-
4Harvard University3.54-0.36vs Predicted
-
5Bowdoin College2.70+0.66vs Predicted
-
6Yale University1.67+3.29vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+2.91vs Predicted
-
8Dartmouth College2.07-0.37vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+0.52vs Predicted
-
10Bowdoin College2.81-4.64vs Predicted
-
11Boston University1.25-0.35vs Predicted
-
12Northeastern University2.00-4.04vs Predicted
-
13Maine Maritime Academy0.26+0.61vs Predicted
-
14Maine Maritime Academy0.27-0.40vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont1.32-4.69vs Predicted
-
16University of New Hampshire0.39-2.70vs Predicted
-
17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-3.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.88Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
-
4.22University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
-
8.77Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
-
3.64Harvard University3.540.2%1st Place
-
5.66Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
-
9.29Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
-
9.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
-
7.63Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
-
9.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
-
5.36Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
-
10.65Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
-
7.96Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
-
13.61Maine Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
-
13.6Maine Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
-
10.31University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
-
13.3University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
-
13.69Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Davis | 9.4% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 17.6% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Flores | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 21.3% | 19.6% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Jack Derry | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Taylor Eastman | 6.0% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Sean Caulfield | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 19.3% | 23.1% |
| Luke Healy | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 19.5% | 23.4% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| James Sullivan | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 19.3% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 19.0% | 24.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.