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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+2.49vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.62+3.87vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.81+2.42vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+5.91vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.23-0.79vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.70-0.13vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.07+0.76vs Predicted
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8Yale University1.67+1.00vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.32+1.51vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.77-1.31vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.25-0.37vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy0.27+1.48vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire0.39+0.25vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy0.26-0.35vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.00-7.05vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-6.55vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.18-3.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.49Harvard University3.540.2%1st Place
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5.87Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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5.42Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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9.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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4.21University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
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5.87Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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7.76Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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9.0Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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10.51University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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8.69Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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10.63Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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13.48Maine Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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13.25University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
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13.65Maine Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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7.95Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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9.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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13.87Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 23.3% | 19.1% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Derry | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 17.1% | 17.9% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Eastman | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| Jack Flores | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 3.3% |
| Luke Healy | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 19.1% | 20.8% |
| James Sullivan | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 15.8% | 17.4% | 18.2% |
| Sean Caulfield | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 18.7% | 23.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| John Divelbiss | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 17.6% | 27.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.