← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Boston University1.25+9.22vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University3.54+1.44vs Predicted
-
3University of Rhode Island3.23+1.22vs Predicted
-
4Bowdoin College2.45+2.48vs Predicted
-
5Bowdoin College2.70+0.57vs Predicted
-
6Northeastern University2.00+2.05vs Predicted
-
7Tufts University1.77+1.73vs Predicted
-
8Tufts University2.62-2.18vs Predicted
-
9Yale University1.67+0.16vs Predicted
-
10Dartmouth College2.07-2.40vs Predicted
-
11Maine Maritime Academy0.27+2.52vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-2.71vs Predicted
-
13University of Vermont1.32-2.67vs Predicted
-
14Maine Maritime Academy0.26-0.37vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44-5.19vs Predicted
-
16University of New Hampshire0.39-2.71vs Predicted
-
17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.18-3.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
10.22Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
-
3.44Harvard University3.540.2%1st Place
-
4.22University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
-
6.48Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
-
5.57Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
-
8.05Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
-
8.73Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
-
5.82Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
-
9.16Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
-
7.6Dartmouth College2.070.0%1st Place
-
13.52Maine Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
-
9.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
-
10.33University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
-
13.63Maine Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
-
9.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
-
13.29University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
-
13.86Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 23.2% | 21.0% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 16.1% | 16.8% | 14.5% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jack Flores | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Taylor Eastman | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Luke Healy | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 14.1% | 20.0% | 22.2% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% |
| Sean Caulfield | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 18.2% | 22.8% |
| Jack Derry | 2.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| James Sullivan | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 16.9% | 18.5% |
| John Divelbiss | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 19.2% | 26.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.