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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+2.36vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.23+2.13vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.62+2.93vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.77+4.68vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.07+2.66vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.25+4.69vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.32+3.25vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.45-1.69vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+1.00vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00-2.24vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy0.27+2.57vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.67-2.94vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy0.26+0.55vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.70-8.29vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire0.39-1.87vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-6.63vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.18-3.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.36Harvard University3.540.2%1st Place
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4.13University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
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5.93Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.68Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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7.66Dartmouth College2.070.0%1st Place
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10.69Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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10.25University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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6.31Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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7.76Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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13.57Maine Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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9.06Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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13.55Maine Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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5.71Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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13.13University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
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9.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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13.83Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 24.4% | 20.1% | 15.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 17.4% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Flores | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Taylor Eastman | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 3.7% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Derry | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Luke Healy | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 20.2% | 22.7% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Sean Caulfield | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 16.1% | 17.2% | 22.3% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Sullivan | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 16.7% | 19.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.0% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| John Divelbiss | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 19.6% | 25.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.