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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+2.34vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.45+4.26vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.70+2.62vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.62+1.86vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.25+5.27vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+3.97vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+2.19vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.23-3.90vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.83+2.88vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.07-2.48vs Predicted
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11Yale University1.67-2.01vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.00-4.28vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy0.27+0.45vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.77-5.30vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy0.26-1.62vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-2.41vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire0.39-3.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34Harvard University3.540.3%1st Place
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6.26Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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5.62Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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5.86Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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10.27Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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9.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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9.19U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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4.1University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
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11.88University of Vermont0.830.0%1st Place
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7.52Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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8.99Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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7.72Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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13.45Maine Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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8.7Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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13.38Maine Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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13.59Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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13.2University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 26.1% | 19.1% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 9.1% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| Jack Derry | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 17.8% | 16.8% | 15.6% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 6.8% |
| Taylor Eastman | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Luke Healy | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 18.0% | 21.4% |
| Jack Flores | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Sean Caulfield | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 16.5% | 23.0% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 17.3% | 22.5% |
| James Sullivan | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 16.7% | 18.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.