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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+2.32vs Predicted
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2Yale University1.67+6.86vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.62+2.81vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.83+7.79vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+4.05vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.07+1.76vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.70-1.51vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.45-1.80vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.00-0.98vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44-0.33vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.23-6.74vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy0.26+1.47vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24+0.56vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.77-5.24vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire0.39-2.03vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy0.27-2.49vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.25-6.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.32Harvard University3.540.3%1st Place
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8.86Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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5.81Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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11.79University of Vermont0.830.0%1st Place
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9.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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7.76Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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5.49Bowdoin College2.700.1%1st Place
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6.2Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.02Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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9.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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4.26University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
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13.47Maine Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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13.56Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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8.76Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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12.97University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
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13.51Maine Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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10.48Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 25.6% | 20.1% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 8.4% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Taylor Eastman | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Jack Derry | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 16.9% | 16.6% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Caulfield | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 18.1% | 22.0% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 17.9% | 22.8% |
| Jack Flores | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| James Sullivan | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 17.1% | 17.8% |
| Luke Healy | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 15.5% | 21.5% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.