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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+4.53vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+7.18vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.04+4.98vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.77+4.66vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.30+1.80vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.12-1.80vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.73+1.91vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.03-0.34vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.52-3.01vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.89-1.43vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11-3.39vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-2.36vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.18-2.15vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.40-0.73vs Predicted
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15Boston University0.72-2.47vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University0.61-3.00vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University0.67-4.16vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-3.26-0.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.53Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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7.98Boston College2.040.1%1st Place
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8.66Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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6.8Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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4.2Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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8.91Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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7.66Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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5.99Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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8.57University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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7.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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9.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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10.85University of Rhode Island1.180.0%1st Place
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13.27Connecticut College0.400.0%1st Place
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12.53Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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13.0Salve Regina University0.610.0%1st Place
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12.84Northeastern University0.670.0%1st Place
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17.79Middlebury College-3.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Wyatt | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Libby Redmond | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 18.1% | 17.0% | 15.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Ellie Maus | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Payton Thompson | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Gear | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Emma Snead | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Meghan Haviland | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 0.6% |
| Christina Van Dyke | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 17.4% | 23.7% | 1.9% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 17.7% | 0.6% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 16.2% | 20.7% | 1.1% |
| Ashley Arruda | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 19.8% | 0.9% |
| Annabelle Wyman | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 94.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.