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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.03+6.99vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.75+3.41vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.12+1.36vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63+5.22vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.52+1.11vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.72+6.54vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.30-0.14vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+0.85vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.73-0.17vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.77-0.95vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.04-3.09vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11-4.20vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.89-4.80vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.40-0.73vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.18-4.06vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University0.61-2.98vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University0.67-4.14vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-3.26-0.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.99Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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5.41Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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4.36Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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9.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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6.11Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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12.54Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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6.86Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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8.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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8.83Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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9.05Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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7.91Boston College2.040.1%1st Place
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7.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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8.2University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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13.27Connecticut College0.400.0%1st Place
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10.94University of Rhode Island1.180.0%1st Place
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13.02Salve Regina University0.610.0%1st Place
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12.86Northeastern University0.670.0%1st Place
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17.79Middlebury College-3.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Maus | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 10.1% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 16.8% | 14.8% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 4.7% | 3.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Payton Thompson | 10.1% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 14.7% | 15.8% | 1.4% |
| Sarah Burn | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Julia Wyatt | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Abbie Carlson | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Libby Redmond | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Emma Snead | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Grace Gear | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Christina Van Dyke | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 17.0% | 22.8% | 1.8% |
| Meghan Haviland | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 0.1% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 21.6% | 1.1% |
| Ashley Arruda | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 20.0% | 0.8% |
| Annabelle Wyman | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 94.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.