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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+3.40vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11+5.70vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.75+2.44vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.52+1.93vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.30+1.86vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College0.40+7.52vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.77+1.77vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.89+0.19vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.72+3.60vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.03-1.98vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.18+0.08vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.73-2.72vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.04-5.34vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University0.61-1.35vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-6.12vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-6.63vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University0.67-4.12vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-3.26-0.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.4Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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5.44Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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5.93Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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6.86Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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13.52Connecticut College0.400.0%1st Place
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8.77Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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8.19University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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12.6Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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8.02Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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11.08University of Rhode Island1.180.0%1st Place
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9.28Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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7.66Boston College2.040.1%1st Place
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12.65Salve Regina University0.610.0%1st Place
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8.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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9.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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12.88Northeastern University0.670.0%1st Place
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17.79Middlebury College-3.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 17.2% | 16.5% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Snead | 5.1% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.0% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payton Thompson | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christina Van Dyke | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 16.1% | 26.3% | 1.9% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Grace Gear | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 14.9% | 0.7% |
| Ellie Maus | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Meghan Haviland | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 0.6% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Libby Redmond | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 19.0% | 1.4% |
| Julia Wyatt | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| Ashley Arruda | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 15.9% | 18.6% | 1.0% |
| Annabelle Wyman | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 94.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.