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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+3.42vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.75+3.49vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.30+4.00vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.04+3.68vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11+2.47vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.52+0.11vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.18+3.98vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+0.82vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.77-0.20vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.73-0.79vs Predicted
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11Boston University0.72+1.59vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University0.67+0.99vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.03-5.29vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.89-5.90vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University0.61-2.17vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-6.63vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.40-3.35vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-3.26-0.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.42Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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5.49Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.0Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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7.68Boston College2.040.1%1st Place
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7.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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6.11Dartmouth College2.520.1%1st Place
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10.98University of Rhode Island1.180.0%1st Place
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8.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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8.8Tufts University1.770.0%1st Place
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9.21Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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12.59Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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12.99Northeastern University0.670.0%1st Place
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7.71Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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8.1University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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12.83Salve Regina University0.610.0%1st Place
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9.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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13.65Connecticut College0.400.0%1st Place
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17.8Middlebury College-3.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 15.7% | 17.2% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 10.3% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Libby Redmond | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Emma Snead | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Payton Thompson | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meghan Haviland | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 0.3% |
| Julia Wyatt | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Abbie Carlson | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 0.9% |
| Ashley Arruda | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 16.4% | 19.2% | 1.7% |
| Ellie Maus | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Grace Gear | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 16.2% | 18.2% | 0.6% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Christina Van Dyke | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 15.6% | 29.0% | 1.8% |
| Annabelle Wyman | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 94.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.