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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University4.50+2.04vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+3.75vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.85vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.56+1.23vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+3.46vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.84+1.40vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.50vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-1.94vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.33-3.07vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.87-2.75vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.76-3.49vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.64-4.14vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.21-0.57vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.49-0.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.04Harvard University4.500.3%1st Place
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5.75Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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6.85U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.23Boston University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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7.4Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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7.5University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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6.06St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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5.93Connecticut College3.330.1%1st Place
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7.25Columbia University2.870.1%1st Place
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7.51Tufts University2.760.0%1st Place
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7.86Roger Williams University2.640.0%1st Place
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12.43Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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13.72U. S. Military Academy-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tedd Himler | 28.9% | 23.7% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Billing | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Pesch | 9.1% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 18.0% | 4.9% | 0.5% |
| Conor Lodge | 6.1% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| Michael Russom | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Ian Liberty | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Whipple | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Hannon | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| T. Max Bulger | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Eric Schwarm | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 0.3% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 66.6% | 14.2% |
| Patrick Bowers | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 12.3% | 84.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.