← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University3.29+4.89vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University4.50+0.95vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.86vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.74vs Predicted
-
5Boston University3.56+0.34vs Predicted
-
6Connecticut College3.33-0.03vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-1.15vs Predicted
-
8Tufts University2.76-0.58vs Predicted
-
9Columbia University2.87-1.78vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-1.54vs Predicted
-
11Northeastern University2.84-3.69vs Predicted
-
12Roger Williams University2.64-4.14vs Predicted
-
13Princeton University0.21-0.58vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Military Academy-1.49-0.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.89Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
-
2.95Harvard University4.500.3%1st Place
-
6.86U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
7.74University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
-
5.34Boston University3.560.1%1st Place
-
5.97Connecticut College3.330.1%1st Place
-
5.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
-
7.42Tufts University2.760.1%1st Place
-
7.22Columbia University2.870.1%1st Place
-
8.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
-
7.31Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
-
7.86Roger Williams University2.640.0%1st Place
-
12.42Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
-
13.72U. S. Military Academy-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Billing | 8.9% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Tedd Himler | 29.2% | 23.5% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Pesch | 9.3% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Whipple | 7.8% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| T. Max Bulger | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Hannon | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 18.1% | 4.7% | 0.2% |
| Conor Lodge | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Eric Schwarm | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 8.0% | 65.0% | 14.5% |
| Patrick Bowers | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 12.2% | 84.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.