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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.05+5.89vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.49+3.34vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.34+2.88vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.61+4.12vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College1.43+3.79vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.64+2.18vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.75+0.73vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.37+1.02vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.68-1.08vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.02+0.53vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.00-0.51vs Predicted
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12Bates College-0.86+3.56vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.73-5.35vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.69-9.47vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.68-7.05vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering-0.37-1.60vs Predicted
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17University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.95-1.42vs Predicted
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18University of New Hampshire-1.59-1.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.89Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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5.34Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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5.88University of Rhode Island2.340.1%1st Place
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8.12Tufts University1.610.1%1st Place
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8.79Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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8.18Brown University1.640.1%1st Place
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7.73Roger Williams University1.750.1%1st Place
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9.02Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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7.92Northeastern University1.680.1%1st Place
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10.53Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
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10.49Tufts University1.000.0%1st Place
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15.56Bates College-0.860.0%1st Place
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7.65Salve Regina University1.730.1%1st Place
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4.53Yale University2.690.2%1st Place
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7.95Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.680.1%1st Place
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14.4Olin College of Engineering-0.370.0%1st Place
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15.58University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.950.0%1st Place
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16.44University of New Hampshire-1.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Eastman | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gridley | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larzelere | 6.3% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Grant Adam | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Chase Reynolds | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Sam Monaghan | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Niall Sheridan | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Meredith Broadus | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Laura Colgan | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 14.3% | 19.6% | 25.9% | 21.8% |
| Peter Cronin | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Farina | 17.8% | 16.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Katz-Christy | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Jagielski | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 18.3% | 22.0% | 18.9% | 8.3% |
| Kai Latham | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 21.5% | 27.3% | 22.3% |
| Clayton Greig | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 6.8% | 13.8% | 21.8% | 47.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.