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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.24+3.42vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.02+6.59vs Predicted
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3Brown University0.64+7.00vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.89+4.72vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.09+3.02vs Predicted
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6Olin College of Engineering0.52+4.26vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.90-1.78vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.70+1.51vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.19-1.37vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.38-2.81vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-5.12vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.07-3.50vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.57-3.14vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.35-3.48vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University0.62-5.19vs Predicted
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16Bates College-0.59-2.10vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire-1.39-1.38vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.96-0.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.42University of Rhode Island2.240.2%1st Place
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8.59Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
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10.0Brown University0.640.0%1st Place
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8.72Tufts University0.890.1%1st Place
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8.02Northeastern University1.090.1%1st Place
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10.26Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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5.22Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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9.51Connecticut College0.700.0%1st Place
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7.63Roger Williams University1.190.1%1st Place
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7.19Roger Williams University1.380.1%1st Place
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5.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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8.5Yale University1.070.1%1st Place
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9.86Northeastern University0.570.0%1st Place
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10.52Tufts University0.350.0%1st Place
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9.81Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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13.9Bates College-0.590.0%1st Place
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15.62University of New Hampshire-1.390.0%1st Place
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17.36University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Botwinick | 17.7% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Jensen | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Versavel | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Taboada | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| James Jagielski | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Shea Smith | 13.7% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Powers | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Colin Martz | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hosek | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Lau | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Ben Palmer | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Celia Byrne | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Emil Tullberg | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Colby Green | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 24.7% | 21.8% | 4.2% |
| Martin Keene | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 14.7% | 47.8% | 14.1% |
| Margaret Buswick | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 11.1% | 79.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.