← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
0.7
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bates College-0.19+2.20vs Predicted
-
2Bates College0.97-0.05vs Predicted
-
3Bowdoin College0.52-0.57vs Predicted
-
4Middlebury College-0.26-0.64vs Predicted
-
5University of Maine-1.37-0.38vs Predicted
-
6Bates College-3.28+0.28vs Predicted
-
7Wentworth Institute of Technology-3.20-0.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.2Bates College-0.190.1%1st Place
-
1.95Bates College0.970.4%1st Place
-
2.43Bowdoin College0.520.3%1st Place
-
3.36Middlebury College-0.260.1%1st Place
-
4.62University of Maine-1.370.0%1st Place
-
6.28Bates College-3.280.0%1st Place
-
6.16Wentworth Institute of Technology-3.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Frary | 14.2% | 17.7% | 24.3% | 25.7% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Ted Lutton | 43.0% | 31.1% | 16.0% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Kitay | 26.2% | 29.1% | 26.0% | 13.4% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Penelope Weekes | 12.3% | 14.7% | 21.8% | 30.4% | 17.8% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| John Holt | 3.0% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 44.5% | 17.2% | 4.3% |
| Charlotte Maffie | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 7.5% | 37.7% | 49.7% |
| Andrew Collins | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 9.2% | 38.0% | 45.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.