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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.19+2.86vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.50+1.12vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.64+5.00vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.56+1.44vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.33+1.19vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.68+2.04vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-0.93vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.76-0.38vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.93vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.87-2.58vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-2.46vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.84-4.54vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.21-0.55vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.49-0.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86Yale University4.190.2%1st Place
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3.12Harvard University4.500.3%1st Place
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8.0Roger Williams University2.640.0%1st Place
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5.44Boston University3.560.1%1st Place
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6.19Connecticut College3.330.1%1st Place
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8.04University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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6.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.62Tufts University2.760.0%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.42Columbia University2.870.0%1st Place
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8.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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7.46Northeastern University2.840.0%1st Place
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12.45Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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13.73U. S. Military Academy-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Morris | 17.7% | 20.3% | 15.7% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tedd Himler | 27.5% | 20.8% | 16.5% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Schwarm | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Pesch | 7.9% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Whipple | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 3.8% | 0.4% |
| Ian Liberty | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| T. Max Bulger | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 6.0% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Hannon | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 18.1% | 4.4% | 0.3% |
| Conor Lodge | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 66.4% | 14.3% |
| Patrick Bowers | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 12.4% | 84.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.