Race 16B

old-guard-owen

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Ian Liberty 8.7% 9.1% 10.1% 10.0% 10.2% 10.6% 8.7% 8.2% 7.7% 5.4% 6.5% 4.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Michael Russom 4.9% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.2% 7.1% 8.5% 8.1% 10.9% 11.5% 11.3% 9.2% 2.7% 0.1%
Conor Lodge 5.6% 6.7% 7.1% 6.3% 8.3% 6.6% 9.4% 8.7% 8.7% 11.2% 10.5% 8.9% 1.8% 0.2%
Arthur Bailey IV 2.9% 3.9% 4.8% 5.3% 6.1% 6.1% 7.4% 7.6% 10.0% 10.3% 11.9% 19.3% 4.2% 0.2%
T. Max Bulger 4.4% 5.2% 5.9% 7.4% 6.5% 9.3% 7.5% 7.9% 11.0% 10.6% 9.4% 12.3% 2.6% 0.0%
Emily Billing 7.7% 9.2% 8.3% 12.0% 9.8% 10.0% 9.9% 8.2% 6.3% 8.2% 5.6% 4.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Lukas Edegran 6.6% 8.0% 8.4% 7.9% 10.0% 8.1% 10.2% 9.3% 9.2% 7.8% 7.7% 5.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Wells Bacon 7.4% 7.5% 8.3% 7.7% 7.5% 8.7% 9.4% 9.9% 9.9% 7.1% 8.3% 6.6% 1.7% 0.0%
Tedd Himler 29.3% 20.7% 17.9% 11.2% 7.3% 6.0% 3.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Brendan Hannon 6.0% 4.9% 6.2% 7.5% 8.3% 9.2% 7.6% 10.1% 9.6% 10.2% 10.3% 7.8% 2.3% 0.0%
Eric Schwarm 4.6% 5.0% 4.4% 6.0% 6.4% 7.8% 8.2% 9.5% 8.4% 11.4% 12.2% 13.2% 2.8% 0.1%
Andrew Werner 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 3.0% 6.2% 66.8% 15.7%
Patrick Bowers 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 13.0% 83.6%
Ryan Pesch 11.5% 13.1% 11.4% 11.1% 12.7% 9.8% 7.4% 9.1% 5.7% 3.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.