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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.57+7.95vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.08+4.65vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.99+8.77vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.27+2.00vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.69-1.31vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles2.28+2.19vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.78-1.25vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University2.15+0.88vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California3.16-4.59vs Predicted
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12University of Oregon1.22+2.87vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay2.30-3.10vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University2.22-3.58vs Predicted
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15Western Washington University0.99+1.00vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis0.92+0.52vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands1.09-1.15vs Predicted
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18California Poly Maritime Academy2.25-7.82vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-5.69vs Predicted
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20Western Washington University2.02-8.71vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles0.83-4.57vs Predicted
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23California State University Monterey Bay1.69-9.97vs Predicted
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24California Poly Maritime Academy0.23-5.54vs Predicted
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25University of California at Berkeley1.54-11.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.95University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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6.65Stanford University3.080.1%1st Place
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11.77University of California at Santa Barbara1.990.0%1st Place
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6.0Stanford University3.270.1%1st Place
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4.69Brown University3.690.2%1st Place
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10.19University of California at Los Angeles2.280.0%1st Place
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7.75University of California at Santa Barbara2.780.1%1st Place
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10.88Western Washington University2.150.1%1st Place
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6.41University of Southern California3.160.1%1st Place
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14.87University of Oregon1.220.0%1st Place
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9.9California State University Monterey Bay2.300.0%1st Place
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10.42Santa Clara University2.220.0%1st Place
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16.0Western Washington University0.990.0%1st Place
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16.52University of California at Davis0.920.0%1st Place
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15.85California State University Channel Islands1.090.0%1st Place
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10.18California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.0%1st Place
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13.31Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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11.29Western Washington University2.020.0%1st Place
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16.43University of California at Los Angeles0.830.0%1st Place
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13.03California State University Monterey Bay1.690.0%1st Place
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18.46California Poly Maritime Academy0.230.0%1st Place
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13.45University of California at Berkeley1.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Rupp | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eliza Richartz | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Logan Swartz | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Sarah Mace | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 16.9% | 15.7% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Morton | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Matt Foster | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Taylor | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Stephen Lue | 8.9% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cara Kuhlman | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 5.8% |
| Bradley Schoch | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Brandon Wood | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ian Reeves | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 10.5% |
| Brittany Hirsch | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 14.2% |
| Andrew Domingos | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% |
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Erik Lund | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Bryan Rust | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Nora Brackbill | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 12.8% |
| Hanna Miller | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| Donald Foster | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 37.2% |
| Joshua Kew | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.