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📊 Prediction Accuracy
70.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.23+1.94vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College0.73+7.59vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.36+1.92vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.73+2.70vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.00+0.84vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.05-0.10vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.31-1.93vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.90-1.91vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University1.31-0.91vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-3.03vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.08+0.62vs Predicted
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12Bates College-0.19+0.30vs Predicted
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13Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.09+1.43vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-0.56-0.65vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.26-4.01vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-0.52-2.81vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.36-1.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.94University of Rhode Island3.230.3%1st Place
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9.59Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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4.92Brown University2.360.1%1st Place
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6.7University of Rhode Island1.730.1%1st Place
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5.84Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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5.9Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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5.07Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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6.09Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.09Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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6.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
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11.62University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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12.3Bates College-0.190.0%1st Place
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14.43Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.090.0%1st Place
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13.35University of New Hampshire-0.560.0%1st Place
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10.99Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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13.19Middlebury College-0.520.0%1st Place
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15.03Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 28.4% | 21.7% | 17.5% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 11.5% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 11.0% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 6.9% | 3.1% |
| Cameron Frary | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 5.5% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 22.5% | 27.2% |
| Anne Berg | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 18.5% | 11.6% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 15.9% | 15.4% | 10.2% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 18.6% | 40.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.