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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.23+1.91vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.36+2.86vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.73+3.65vs Predicted
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4Bates College-0.19+8.37vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University1.31+2.80vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.90+0.33vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.31-1.93vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.05-2.32vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.00-2.97vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-0.56+3.26vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.73-1.26vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-4.98vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.08-1.44vs Predicted
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14Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.09+0.52vs Predicted
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15Middlebury College-0.52-1.90vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.26-4.92vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.36-1.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.91University of Rhode Island3.230.3%1st Place
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4.86Brown University2.360.1%1st Place
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6.65University of Rhode Island1.730.1%1st Place
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12.37Bates College-0.190.0%1st Place
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7.8Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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6.33Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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5.07Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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5.68Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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6.03Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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13.26University of New Hampshire-0.560.0%1st Place
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9.74Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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7.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
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11.56University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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14.52Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.090.0%1st Place
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13.1Middlebury College-0.520.0%1st Place
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11.08Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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15.04Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 30.1% | 21.1% | 16.6% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 11.9% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Frary | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 16.9% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 5.3% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Berg | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 10.3% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 3.8% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 22.0% | 28.6% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 16.4% | 15.9% | 10.9% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 21.3% | 38.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.