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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.90+5.05vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.23+0.92vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.36+1.90vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.05+1.83vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.00+0.71vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+1.20vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.73-0.25vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.08+3.41vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.31-3.85vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.73-0.33vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.26+0.12vs Predicted
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12Bates College-0.19+0.35vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.31-4.96vs Predicted
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14Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.09+0.52vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.56-1.79vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-0.52-2.81vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.36-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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2.92University of Rhode Island3.230.3%1st Place
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4.9Brown University2.360.1%1st Place
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5.83Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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5.71Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
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6.75University of Rhode Island1.730.1%1st Place
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11.41University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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5.15Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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9.67Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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11.12Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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12.35Bates College-0.190.0%1st Place
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8.04Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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14.52Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.090.0%1st Place
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13.21University of New Hampshire-0.560.0%1st Place
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13.19Middlebury College-0.520.0%1st Place
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14.99Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 28.3% | 22.8% | 18.8% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 10.3% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% |
| Thomas Styron | 9.2% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 2.1% |
| Cameron Frary | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 11.2% | 5.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 22.2% | 28.4% |
| Anne Berg | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 17.6% | 16.9% | 11.0% |
| Grace Augspurger | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 14.3% | 15.3% | 11.0% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 19.3% | 38.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.