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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.05+4.62vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.23+0.92vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College0.73+6.69vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.73+2.72vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University1.31+2.78vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.31-0.81vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.00-1.12vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.36-3.14vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.90-2.69vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.08+1.56vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.26+0.10vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College-0.52+1.15vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.36+1.92vs Predicted
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14Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.09+0.54vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-7.92vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-0.56-2.70vs Predicted
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17Bates College-0.19-4.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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2.92University of Rhode Island3.230.3%1st Place
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9.69Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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6.72University of Rhode Island1.730.1%1st Place
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7.78Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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5.19Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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5.88Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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4.86Brown University2.360.1%1st Place
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6.31Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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11.56University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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11.1Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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13.15Middlebury College-0.520.0%1st Place
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14.92Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.360.0%1st Place
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14.54Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.090.0%1st Place
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7.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
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13.3University of New Hampshire-0.560.0%1st Place
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12.4Bates College-0.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Eastman | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 28.7% | 21.9% | 19.0% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Zachary Champney | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 12.6% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 2.5% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 1.3% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 15.9% | 17.6% | 9.6% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 19.8% | 39.1% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 15.9% | 19.6% | 29.8% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Anne Berg | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 17.0% | 15.4% | 11.5% |
| Cameron Frary | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.