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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.36+3.77vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.73+4.62vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.00+2.85vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23-0.98vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.73+4.58vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.31-0.85vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.05-1.23vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.90-1.93vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-1.72vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.26+1.03vs Predicted
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11Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.09+3.48vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College-0.52+1.17vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-0.56+0.22vs Predicted
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14Bates College-0.19-1.60vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.08-3.44vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University1.31-8.02vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.36-1.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.77Brown University2.360.1%1st Place
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6.62University of Rhode Island1.730.1%1st Place
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5.85Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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3.02University of Rhode Island3.230.3%1st Place
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9.58Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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5.15Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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5.77Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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6.07Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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11.03Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.260.0%1st Place
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14.48Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.090.0%1st Place
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13.17Middlebury College-0.520.0%1st Place
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13.22University of New Hampshire-0.560.0%1st Place
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12.4Bates College-0.190.0%1st Place
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11.56University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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7.98Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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15.05Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 13.6% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 7.4% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 9.2% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 27.7% | 23.6% | 15.3% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Styron | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 15.7% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 21.7% | 30.2% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 17.4% | 15.7% | 10.3% |
| Anne Berg | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 16.0% | 11.6% |
| Cameron Frary | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 4.1% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 21.0% | 39.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.