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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.64+5.55vs Predicted
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2California State University Channel Islands2.77+4.17vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.23+1.70vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis0.64+9.14vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.26+2.00vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.46+0.36vs Predicted
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8Santa Clara University2.20+0.48vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University1.62+1.34vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.57-3.25vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University1.02+1.81vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles1.50-0.99vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley1.40-1.45vs Predicted
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14University of Oregon-0.09+2.59vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay1.64-4.62vs Predicted
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16California Poly Maritime Academy2.83-10.05vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-0.34-1.00vs Predicted
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19California Poly Maritime Academy0.11-3.27vs Predicted
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20Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.07-4.00vs Predicted
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21California State University Monterey Bay0.71-7.20vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles2.63-15.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.55University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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6.17California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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4.7Stanford University3.230.2%1st Place
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14.14University of California at Davis0.640.0%1st Place
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8.0Stanford University2.260.1%1st Place
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7.36University of California at Santa Barbara2.460.1%1st Place
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8.48Santa Clara University2.200.0%1st Place
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10.34Western Washington University1.620.0%1st Place
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6.75University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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12.81Western Washington University1.020.0%1st Place
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11.01University of California at Los Angeles1.500.0%1st Place
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11.55University of California at Berkeley1.400.0%1st Place
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16.59University of Oregon-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.38California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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5.95California Poly Maritime Academy2.830.1%1st Place
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17.0University of California at Davis-0.340.0%1st Place
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15.73California Poly Maritime Academy0.110.0%1st Place
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16.0Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.070.0%1st Place
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13.8California State University Monterey Bay0.710.0%1st Place
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6.69University of California at Los Angeles2.630.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Hutcheson | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 10.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly McKinney | 16.1% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Thome | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 5.2% |
| Tally Buckstaff | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Walsh | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JOHN CONNOR BATHEN | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ashley Vincent | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Mallory Schluter | 7.6% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Waldron | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| William Edwards | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Goldberg | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Marissa Paulling | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 20.3% | 23.7% |
| Zachary Haney | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Lancaster | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Pruitt | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 12.0% | 21.2% | 30.3% |
| Nevin Garcia | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 16.1% |
| Macy Stout | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| Ashley Eberhard | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 4.6% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.