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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.09+6.64vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+7.06vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.90+5.40vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.08+7.75vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.76+4.03vs Predicted
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6Princeton University2.35+0.74vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.19+0.08vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-0.86vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.75-0.13vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.16+1.42vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.05-3.27vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-7.87vs Predicted
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13Villanova University0.91-0.49vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.24-2.94vs Predicted
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15University of Texas0.06+0.36vs Predicted
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16Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30+0.64vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-1.23vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.55-0.36vs Predicted
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19Stevens Institute of Technology-0.92-0.54vs Predicted
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20Washington College-0.24-3.43vs Predicted
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21Webb Institute1.91-12.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.64University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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9.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.1%1st Place
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8.4Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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11.75University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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9.03Tufts University1.760.1%1st Place
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6.74Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.08SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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8.87Jacksonville University1.750.0%1st Place
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11.42SUNY Maritime College1.160.0%1st Place
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7.73Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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4.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.2%1st Place
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12.51Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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11.06Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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15.36University of Texas0.060.0%1st Place
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16.64Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
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15.77SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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17.64University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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18.46Stevens Institute of Technology-0.920.0%1st Place
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16.57Washington College-0.240.0%1st Place
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8.02Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Gavula | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gannon Troutman | 2.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| John Eastman | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 19.7% | 16.1% | 15.5% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Brent Penwarden | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 5.5% |
| Cole Bender | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 17.0% | 16.0% | 12.6% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 6.6% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 18.3% | 23.6% |
| Michael Dasaro | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 19.0% | 36.9% |
| Matthew Collinson | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 13.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.