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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University1.75+7.73vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.05+5.57vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+1.02vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.08+7.49vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+3.81vs Predicted
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6Princeton University2.35+0.52vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.19+0.26vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.90+0.02vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.76-0.43vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30+6.28vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.24-0.11vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-4.70vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.91-4.57vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.09-6.64vs Predicted
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15University of Texas0.06+0.08vs Predicted
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16Washington College-0.24+0.04vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.65-4.01vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-2.46vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia-0.55-2.13vs Predicted
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20Villanova University0.91-7.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.73Jacksonville University1.750.1%1st Place
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7.57Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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4.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.2%1st Place
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11.49University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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8.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.1%1st Place
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6.52Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.26SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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8.02Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.57Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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16.28Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
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10.89Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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7.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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8.43Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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7.36University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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15.08University of Texas0.060.0%1st Place
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16.04Washington College-0.240.0%1st Place
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12.99SUNY Maritime College0.650.0%1st Place
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15.54SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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16.87University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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12.25Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Gurnell | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| John Eastman | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 20.1% | 17.4% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| John McKenna | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cole Bender | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| Brent Penwarden | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 11.7% |
| Matthew Collinson | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 16.4% | 19.5% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 2.8% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 16.0% | 12.8% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 17.2% | 30.4% |
| Owen Ward | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.