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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.91+7.06vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.76+6.68vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+1.01vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.09+3.40vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+2.07vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+2.92vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.08+4.71vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.90-0.04vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.75-0.31vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30+6.34vs Predicted
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11Princeton University2.35-4.48vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.19-4.77vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.05-5.09vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.24-3.17vs Predicted
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15University of Texas0.06+0.04vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-0.66vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.24-1.06vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.65-4.76vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia-0.55-2.16vs Predicted
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20Villanova University0.91-7.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.06Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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8.68Tufts University1.760.1%1st Place
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4.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.2%1st Place
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7.4University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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11.71University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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7.96Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.69Jacksonville University1.750.0%1st Place
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16.34Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
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6.52Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.23SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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7.91Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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10.83Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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15.04University of Texas0.060.0%1st Place
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15.34SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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15.94Washington College-0.240.0%1st Place
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13.24SUNY Maritime College0.650.0%1st Place
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16.84University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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12.26Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 20.3% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 3.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Cole Bender | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 18.5% | 20.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 10.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 15.4% | 11.1% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 15.1% | 13.5% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 14.7% | 15.2% | 18.0% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 2.9% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 30.7% |
| Owen Ward | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.