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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+3.00vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.75+6.81vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73+6.01vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.09+3.45vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+2.13vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.19+1.17vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.90+1.41vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.24+2.74vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.76-0.33vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.91-1.78vs Predicted
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11Villanova University0.91+1.22vs Predicted
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12Princeton University2.35-5.33vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.03+2.85vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30+2.36vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.65-1.82vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.05-8.37vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia0.06-1.76vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.24-1.73vs Predicted
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19University of Texas0.06-3.75vs Predicted
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20University of Vermont1.08-8.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.2%1st Place
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8.81Jacksonville University1.750.1%1st Place
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9.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.1%1st Place
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7.45University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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7.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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7.17SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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8.41Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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10.74Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.67Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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8.22Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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12.22Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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6.67Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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15.85SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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16.36Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
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13.18SUNY Maritime College0.650.0%1st Place
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7.63Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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15.24University of Virginia0.060.0%1st Place
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16.27Washington College-0.240.0%1st Place
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15.25University of Texas0.060.0%1st Place
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11.73University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 22.1% | 16.0% | 16.2% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 6.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Owen Ward | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 16.0% | 16.8% | 17.8% |
| Cole Bender | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 24.7% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 3.5% |
| John Eastman | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 12.5% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 24.2% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 16.5% | 12.7% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.