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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.19+6.10vs Predicted
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2Villanova University0.91+10.24vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.91+5.22vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+0.01vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.05+2.59vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+1.23vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.75+2.10vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.24+2.71vs Predicted
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9Princeton University2.35-2.64vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30+6.44vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.08+0.64vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.76-3.06vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.90-4.49vs Predicted
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14University of Texas0.06+1.29vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia0.06+0.20vs Predicted
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16Washington College-0.24+0.11vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.65-3.83vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-2.27vs Predicted
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19University of Pennsylvania2.09-11.58vs Predicted
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20U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-10.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.1SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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12.24Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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8.22Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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4.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.2%1st Place
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7.59Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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9.1Jacksonville University1.750.0%1st Place
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10.71Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.36Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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16.44Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
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11.64University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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8.94Tufts University1.760.1%1st Place
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8.51Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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15.29University of Texas0.060.0%1st Place
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15.2University of Virginia0.060.0%1st Place
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16.11Washington College-0.240.0%1st Place
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13.17SUNY Maritime College0.650.0%1st Place
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15.73SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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7.42University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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9.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chisari | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 20.6% | 17.7% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Bender | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 18.6% | 23.6% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 14.6% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 16.2% | 14.2% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 17.1% | 22.7% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.9% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.