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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.91+6.92vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+1.90vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.90+5.05vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.19+2.91vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University1.75+3.57vs Predicted
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6Villanova University0.91+6.05vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.05+0.66vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-1.21vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.09-1.89vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.08+1.35vs Predicted
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11Princeton University2.35-4.55vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.76+0.79vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.24-2.03vs Predicted
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14University of Texas0.06+1.16vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.65-2.03vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.03-0.58vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.24-1.08vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30-1.70vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia0.06-3.97vs Predicted
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20Tufts University1.76-11.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.92Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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3.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.2%1st Place
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8.05Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.91SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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8.57Jacksonville University1.750.1%1st Place
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12.05Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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7.66Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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6.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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7.11University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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11.35University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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6.45Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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12.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.760.0%1st Place
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10.97Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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15.16University of Texas0.060.0%1st Place
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12.97SUNY Maritime College0.650.0%1st Place
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15.42SUNY Stony Brook-0.030.0%1st Place
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15.92Washington College-0.240.0%1st Place
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16.3Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
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15.03University of Virginia0.060.0%1st Place
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8.68Tufts University1.760.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 21.1% | 17.2% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| John Eastman | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 8.0% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.5% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Connor Mraz | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 14.1% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 17.1% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 20.6% |
| Cole Bender | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 17.2% | 25.8% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 14.6% | 12.3% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.