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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.09+8.79vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.90+4.78vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.78+4.31vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+3.19vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University0.94+5.40vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-1.52vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.76+4.51vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University0.85+2.67vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-4.62vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.07-3.77vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia0.06+2.81vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.27-2.63vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.88-5.83vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+2.10vs Predicted
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15University of Texas0.65-3.53vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.35-0.95vs Predicted
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17Villanova University-1.80+1.43vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.15-4.39vs Predicted
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19Webb Institute0.94-8.61vs Predicted
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20SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-4.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.79SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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6.78Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.31Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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7.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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10.4Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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4.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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11.51SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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10.67Jacksonville University0.850.0%1st Place
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4.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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6.23Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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13.81University of Virginia0.060.0%1st Place
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9.37University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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7.17University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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16.1Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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11.47University of Texas0.650.0%1st Place
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15.05Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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18.43Villanova University-1.800.0%1st Place
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13.61Washington College0.150.0%1st Place
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10.39Webb Institute0.940.0%1st Place
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15.86SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Vail | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matthew King | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 16.7% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 16.6% | 16.9% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Sheridan | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 8.2% | 3.5% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 12.0% | 15.3% | 21.0% | 14.6% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 17.7% | 6.8% |
| Julia Priebke | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 15.6% | 58.2% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 2.4% |
| Evan Spalding | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 19.7% | 12.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.