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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.49vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.07+4.20vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.50vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University0.85+6.87vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.90+1.75vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University0.94+4.58vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+0.33vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.27+0.98vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.78-1.83vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute0.94+0.52vs Predicted
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11University of Texas0.65+0.69vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.35+3.27vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.15+0.70vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia0.06-0.24vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+1.00vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-0.32vs Predicted
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17Villanova University-1.80+1.46vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.76-6.71vs Predicted
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19University of Pennsylvania1.88-12.22vs Predicted
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20SUNY Maritime College1.09-10.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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6.2Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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4.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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10.87Jacksonville University0.850.0%1st Place
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6.75Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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10.58Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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7.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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8.98University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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7.17Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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10.52Webb Institute0.940.0%1st Place
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11.69University of Texas0.650.0%1st Place
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15.27Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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13.7Washington College0.150.0%1st Place
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13.76University of Virginia0.060.0%1st Place
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16.0Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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15.68SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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18.46Villanova University-1.800.0%1st Place
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11.29SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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6.78University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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9.98SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 17.2% | 15.0% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Sheridan | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.2% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Shea Smith | 8.0% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 15.9% | 15.1% | 8.7% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 3.0% |
| Connor Lothrop | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 15.5% | 22.1% | 13.2% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 19.6% | 11.0% |
| Julia Priebke | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 15.3% | 58.8% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Vail | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.