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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.09+8.86vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.43vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University0.94+7.70vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+0.58vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.27+4.15vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.88+1.03vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+0.36vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.78-0.96vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.07-2.86vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University0.85+0.95vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.90-4.05vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.43+3.79vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.76-1.40vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute0.94-3.50vs Predicted
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15Villanova University-0.08-0.62vs Predicted
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16University of Texas0.19-2.54vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.12-2.54vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.15-4.23vs Predicted
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19Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.67vs Predicted
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20Princeton University-0.35-4.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.86SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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4.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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10.7Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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4.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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9.15University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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7.03University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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7.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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7.04Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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6.14Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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10.95Jacksonville University0.850.0%1st Place
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6.95Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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15.79University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
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11.6SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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10.5Webb Institute0.940.0%1st Place
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14.38Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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13.46University of Texas0.190.0%1st Place
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14.46SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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13.77Washington College0.150.0%1st Place
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16.33Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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15.51Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Vail | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Will Murray | 16.5% | 14.6% | 15.5% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.2% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Connor Sheridan | 9.3% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Shea Smith | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 17.2% | 19.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Evan Spalding | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Murray | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 10.2% |
| Theresa McComiskey | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% |
| Kristin Hess | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 9.5% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 15.8% | 27.4% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 16.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.